Japan’s relationship with China has always been complicated, but recent political tensions have made that instability painfully visible. The question now is how Japan should prepare itself—economically and socially—for a future in which reliance on China may no longer be a safe assumption.
Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks about Taiwan seem to have enraged the Chinese leadership, prompting a rapid series of retaliatory measures against Japan.
For this to happen immediately after the APEC summit must be a complete loss of face for China’s top leadership.
One of the sanctions announced was a travel advisory discouraging Chinese citizens from visiting Japan.
In Kamakura, the number of tourists appears to have dropped by 20–30 percent.
For businesses that depend heavily on Chinese inbound tourism, this must be a serious blow. But when foreign relations are this unstable, perhaps the more sensible approach is not to rely on such a volatile source in the first place.
Japan should rebuild its fundamental economic base and treat Chinese demand merely as an “extra” during times when relations are good.
People say Japan “cannot survive without China,” but if necessary, we can simply return to the economic structure of the era when China was still developing.
The hollowing-out of Japanese industry was a choice we made ourselves.
After the Plaza Accord strengthened the yen, Japan outsourced production to cheaper regions—chiefly China.
The rest is well known: China’s remarkable growth into a global manufacturing powerhouse, now strong enough to challenge even the United States.
China worked hard to become “the world’s factory,” and that achievement deserves recognition and respect.
Even so, relations with such a country are difficult.
If they are difficult, then we must first secure our footing rather than becoming overly reactive to every shift in the political winds.
Not long ago, Japan was furious about Trump-era tariffs and talked about forming economic blocs without the United States.
If that was acceptable, then shifting away from dependence on China should also be an option.
Japan is often described as a “resource-poor nation,” but it possesses strong infrastructure, a rich cultural foundation, and abundant human capital.
If Japan made better use of its craftsmanship and its characteristic strengths, it could remain a wealthy nation.
To hedge against China risk, Japan should avoid pursuing endless growth and the expansion of a consumer society.
There is another path forward: valuing, maintaining, and sustaining what we already have.
