Japanese politics has become increasingly difficult for an ordinary voter like me to follow. Parties merge, split, disappear, and reappear under different names, sometimes within a matter of months. There may be perfectly reasonable political calculations behind all this, but from the outside, it can look bewildering. And when the main opposition force repeatedly reorganizes itself while the ruling party remains firmly in place, voters may begin to wonder what choices are actually left to them.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan was dismantled, and a party called the Centrist Reform Alliance was hastily created in its place. It then suffered a crushing defeat in the general election, effectively destroying what had been the main counterweight to the Liberal Democratic Party. And now that party, too, is being dismantled, with yet another new party, the Democratic Reform Group, about to be launched.
The politicians who originally came from Komeito are simply returning to Komeito.
So why can’t the former CDP members simply do the same thing?
I have no idea what negotiations or circumstances led them to establish yet another new party.
Perhaps there are issues involving government subsidies to political parties and other financial arrangements. But since the former Komeito members can return to their old party, I still find the whole thing difficult to understand.
In any case, the CDP dissolved itself just before the general election without having accomplished much as a party, and then suffered what amounted to a self-inflicted defeat.
That cannot simply be explained by saying that Prime Minister Takaichi was popular.
There was once a period when politicians split away from the LDP and repeatedly formed new parties.
Looking back, however, many of those divisions seemed to be driven by politicians insisting on going their own way. Some later returned to the LDP, became cabinet ministers, and appeared perfectly happy about it.
Do such politicians ever think about how voters feel?
Apparently, twenty former CDP lawmakers who survived the general election will join this new Democratic Reform Group.
But with only twenty members, it has already lost much of its numerical influence and may simply become one more small party among many.
Even if the next general election is three or four years away, many of the older politicians who had traditionally been strong at elections suffered major defeats in the last one.
By the time the next election arrives, I wonder how many of them will still have the age and stamina to fight another campaign.
What exactly are the people in this new party thinking?
Meanwhile, as her former rivals continue to weaken themselves, Prime Minister Takaichi is reshuffling her Cabinet today and is even preparing a ministerial post for the Japan Innovation Party.
There are cabinet posts to aspire to if you remain in the LDP. And if you become a minister, perhaps there may be further opportunities beyond that.
People sometimes say that if you are going to buy a lottery ticket, you should buy it from a shop that has produced many winners.
Perhaps politics works in much the same way.
The LDP has governed Japan for most of the postwar era, yet it has failed to halt the declining birthrate, while Japan’s prolonged stagnation continues.
So what exactly are we supposed to expect from it now?
And if there is no longer another party with enough political strength to push through major policies, what are we voters supposed to do?
At the very least, I hope Prime Minister Takaichi will appoint more women to the Cabinet and help improve Japan’s position in the Global Gender Gap Index, where the country currently ranks 117th out of 145 countries.
Incidentally, Japan is often described as ranking last among the Group of Seven advanced economies in this respect.
Which makes me wonder:
Is Japan still really among the leading advanced countries?
When political parties keep changing their names and shapes, voters may eventually lose sight of what they are actually being asked to choose.
・・・
at a loss — どうしたらよいかわからない、お手上げで
Voters are at a loss. のように使います。
counterweight — 対抗勢力、均衡を取る存在
ここでは自民党に対抗できる政治勢力という意味。
self-inflicted defeat — 自ら招いた敗北、自滅
self-inflicted は「自分で自分に負わせた」という意味。
go one’s own way — 我が道を行く、独自路線を取る
政治家や組織の分裂を表す時にも使えます。
numerical influence — 数による影響力
議会政治では議員数そのものが政治的な力になります。
stamina — 持久力、体力
選挙戦を長期間戦う体力という文脈。
aspire to — ～を目指す、～になることを望む
aspire to become a minister なら「大臣を目指す」。
prolonged stagnation — 長期にわたる停滞
経済や社会の低迷についてよく使われる表現。
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