A cold, rainy morning—hanabie, the chill that comes just as the cherry blossoms begin to bloom.
There was a news report saying that this year’s cherry blossoms are blooming slightly earlier than usual.
If they reach full bloom within a week, one organizer of a local cherry blossom festival was worried that by the time the event begins in about ten days, the petals may already be falling.
In Kamakura yesterday, the blossoms seemed to advance noticeably between the morning when I left home and the evening when I returned.
It reminds me how important the timing of cherry blossoms is to Japan’s economy.
Rather than following a fixed calendar, economic activity here often depends on a natural phenomenon—the blooming of sakura. It may seem relaxed, but perhaps it reflects the generous mindset of people who appreciate nature.
Cherry blossom forecasts themselves are also interesting.
No matter when the blossoms bloom, it is, after all, entirely up to the trees. Yet today, large amounts of data are collected to predict the exact day of flowering.
Perhaps the time will come when we no longer talk about whether a meteorologist’s forecast was right or wrong.
Still, it feels a little curious that meteorologists and weather companies—neither botanists nor horticulturists—are the ones making these predictions.
In any case, weather clearly has a strong influence on the human economy.
The weather will likely remain relatively mild until mid-May, which is a relief. After that, however, the rainy season and then intense summer heat await.
By then, I hope the conflicts in the Middle East will settle down and energy supplies will stabilize.
Weather, in its quiet way, moves the economy as much as any policy or market.
